part of: the surrounding story · about: CCTV footage
Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage?
open list promoted from measurement
About: CCTV footage · Joshua Kerry
lens: Evidence-weighted Structural
The split — every branch
Shares under Evidence-weighted. Belief may rank these branches; it may never hide one — and the last bar, unknown, is a branch too.
Police claim Joshua Kerry drove without glasses is currently leading — not established. The unknown residual stands at 98%.
The branches, one by one
The suspect appears overweight/chubby
Supports
Nothing supports this branch yet — untested, which is not the same as refuted.
Challenges
- challenges The CCTV footage does not show Joshua Kerry leaving the address diagnostic circumstantial moderate ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
Police claim Joshua Kerry drove without glasses
Supports
- supports The CCTV footage shows Joshua Kerry opening the passenger side door of a red car diagnostic circumstantial moderate ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
- supports The Sun obtained CCTV showing Joshua Kerry opening the passenger side of a car diagnostic circumstantial weak ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
Challenges
- challenges Police have not shown CCTV of the car on the drive or of Joshua Kerry breaking into Anne Widdecombe's property diagnostic circumstantial moderate ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
The suspect was seen with a wooden bat sticking out of his cargo shorts
Supports
Nothing supports this branch yet — untested, which is not the same as refuted.
Challenges
Nothing argues against this branch yet.
What would change this
The evidence that would move this Question — read straight off the structure, not editorialised. These are the places where the model is explicitly waiting to be corrected.
Branches nothing has tested yet — evidence here would move the most:
- The suspect appears overweight/chubby
- The suspect was seen with a wooden bat sticking out of his cargo shorts
Where this leads — the ranked narratives
Narrative ranking pending for this neighbourhood — the possible worlds through this Question have not been enumerated yet.
Recent developments
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: The prosecution unsuccessfully attempted to introduce a terrorism connection in…see the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Court filings indicate the Crown Prosecution Service applied to add a terrorism connected…see the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.see the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.see the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry is the perpetrator of Anne Widdecombe's murdersee the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry drove approximately 540 miles in one trip without stopping for fuel or toiletsee the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Police claim Joshua Kerry is 28 years old and from Rotherhamsee the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Russian and communist material was discovered on Joshua Kerry's devicesee the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry is being quizzed by the policesee the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Footage of Joshua Kerry was released last weeksee the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: Police have released a picture of Joshua Kerry holding a jar of Easter eggs for a charity…see the page as it stood then
- Why does the suspect appear different from the CCTV footage? — answer on the table: The family believes that the death of Joshua Kerry's father may have caused him to spiral…see the page as it stood then
Sources bearing on this Question
Numbers on this page are computed under Evidence-weighted (log-odds@1) — how belief is computed. Related views: the whole story · timeline · explore the narratives.
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