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Take the tour

A walk through everything this site does — 153 features across 12 chapters, each one saying what you are looking at, why it is built that way, and where it leads. Every section links to a live example you can go and read.

If you only read one other page, read Method — it explains the arithmetic behind every number here. This tour is the wider version: the whole surface, screen by screen. Prefer it in one piece? The entire tour as one Markdown document is the same content, single file.

The five-minute walk

If you would rather use the site than read about it, do these five things in order. They trace the shape of the whole model.

  1. Start with an open question.

    Every candidate answer is on one screen, with the evidence for and against each — and the share of belief left over for answers nobody has proposed.

    Open the biggest question in the model

  2. Click a piece of evidence.

    A claim page shows every contribution to its standing, term by term, including the contributions the engine saw and refused to count.

    Open the most argued-over claim

  3. Follow a name.

    Entities are hubs: everything a person, place or organisation appears in, plus everything they are recorded as having said.

    Open the most-connected entity

  4. Walk a possible world.

    Pick one answer per open question and see which combinations survive — and read, in words, why the impossible ones fail.

    Walk the possible worlds around “Who was responsible for the Nord Stream sabotage?”

  5. Scrub back in time.

    Add ?asof=YYYY-MM-DD to any page and it renders what the model believed on that day — from the log, not from today’s numbers wearing an old date.

    Read the two clocks

The twelve chapters

Read them in order for a complete picture, or jump to the one covering the screen in front of you.

1 What this site is Eight ideas that explain every screen here. Read this chapter and the rest are variations. 9 features — Everything is a claim · Belief is computed, never assigned · “None of the above” is always on the ballot … 2 The Question page — the heart of it One open uncertainty, every candidate answer side by side, and what argues for and against each. 18 features — The header: what kind of question this is · The context line — anchors, not breadcrumbs · The split: every branch on one screen … 3 How to read the numbers Belief bars, the unknown residual, the floor, and the lens that every number names. 12 features — The anatomy of a belief bar · What the shares are shares of · Leading is not proven … 4 The claim page — the audit trail One statement, taken apart: every contribution to its standing, including the ones the engine refused. 17 features — The statement, and what it answers · The structured reading · When it happened — and admitting when that is unknown … 5 People, events and documents The hubs: who appears where, what happened when, and what each document actually said. 14 features — The entity page: names, and other names · “Possibly the same as” — doubt as public content · Involved in, and Statements attributed to it … 6 Everything links to everything The graph is the sitemap. No page here is allowed to be a dead end, and that is enforced. 10 features — The graph is the sitemap · Every mention is a link · The catch-all, so nothing can hide … 7 The front page, and what makes something hot Ranked by where evidence is moving — never by how loudly something is being said. 17 features — A wall of open questions, not a feed · The full index — and the “much asserted, little shown” sort · What a card tells you before you click … 8 Search Finds things by meaning and by misspelling, and returns every hit with its relationships attached. 10 features — The box, on every page · Two ways of matching, unioned · Misspelled names still find their subject … 9 What changed, and when we knew The change log, the event-time axis, and the scrubber that replays what was believed on any past day. 11 features — The change log is the memory · Every kind of change has a sentence · The last 24 hours, at a glance … 10 Stories and the narrative explorer Walk a possible world: pick an answer to each open Question and watch which combinations survive. 11 features — A story is a neighbourhood, not a folder · A derived title and a cast · How much of this rests on one source … 11 The machine-readable layer Every page has a JSON twin, a Markdown twin and a feed — and the honesty rules travel with them. 11 features — One query layer, three renderers · Markdown twins · The JSON API … 12 Built to stay honest The rules the code enforces on itself: works without JavaScript, no dead ends, no cookies, no verdicts. 13 features — Everything works without JavaScript · What the moving parts actually add · The charts are drawn on the server …