part of: the surrounding story · about: Joshua Kerry
How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator?
exclusive promoted from measurement
About: Joshua Kerry · police
lens: Evidence-weighted Structural
The split — every branch
1 of the 3 ranked narratives decline to answer this Question at all — the residual is winning it. Shares under Evidence-weighted. Belief may rank these branches; it may never hide one — and the last bar, unknown, is a branch too.
Police raided Joshua Kerry's house and discovered Russian and communist material is currently leading — not established. The unknown residual stands at 62%.
The branches, one by one
Police raided Joshua Kerry's house and discovered Russian and communist material
Supports
- supports Russian and communist material was discovered on Joshua Kerry's device diagnostic circumstantial strong ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
- supports The discovery of Russian and communist material on the suspect's device led terrorism police to become involved diagnostic circumstantial moderate ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
Challenges
Nothing argues against this branch yet.
The Sun obtained CCTV showing Joshua Kerry opening the passenger side of a car
Supports
Nothing supports this branch yet — untested, which is not the same as refuted.
Challenges
- challenges The CCTV footage does not show Joshua Kerry leaving the address diagnostic circumstantial strong ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
- challenges Police have not shown CCTV of the car on the drive or of Joshua Kerry breaking into Anne Widdecombe's property diagnostic circumstantial moderate ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
- challenges The family says the suspect does not look like the CCTV footage diagnostic circumstantial moderate ▤ Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS
If this were true…
if this, then Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
inferred — position-to-know v1 3 critical questions open premise: The Sun obtained CCTV showing Joshua Kerry…
if this, then Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
inferred — expert-testimony v1 3 critical questions open premise: The Sun obtained CCTV showing Joshua Kerry…
What would change this
The evidence that would move this Question — read straight off the structure, not editorialised. These are the places where the model is explicitly waiting to be corrected.
- Was the source actually positioned to observe or receive this? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
- Is the account corroborated by an independent source or artifact? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
- Is the account a restatement of someone else’s, rather than first-hand? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
- Does the source have an interest in this conclusion? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
- Is the source genuinely in a position to know? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
- Is the claim independently corroborated? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
Branches nothing has tested yet — evidence here would move the most:
Where this leads — the ranked narratives
-
#1 — walk this version of events
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator?: (agnostic — left open) (62%)
-
#2 — walk this version of events
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator?: Police raided Joshua Kerry's house and discovered Russian and communist material (38%)
-
#3 — walk this version of events
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator?: The Sun obtained CCTV showing Joshua Kerry opening the passenger side of a car (0.3%)
Recent developments
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — belief recomputed; unknown 62%see the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The function of the Crown Prosecution Service is not to decide whether a person is guilty…see the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The CPS assessment of any case is not in any sense a finding of, or implication of, any…see the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Proceedings against the defendant are active and he has the right to a fair trial.see the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Our prosecutors have worked closely with the police to establish that there is sufficient…see the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Police enquiries into the defendant's motives are ongoing, including a potential…see the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The suspect was seen with a wooden bat sticking out of his cargo shortssee the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The discovery of Russian and communist material on the suspect's device led terrorism…see the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The suspect appears overweight/chubbysee the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The family says the suspect does not look like the CCTV footagesee the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The suspect's car is a Vauxhall Corser with a 45 L fuel tanksee the page as it stood then
- How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry's father died, after which Joshua Kerry's attitude changed and he became…see the page as it stood then
Sources bearing on this Question
Numbers on this page are computed under Evidence-weighted (log-odds@1) — how belief is computed. Related views: the whole story · timeline · explore the narratives.
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