part of: the surrounding story · about: Joshua Kerry

About: ◈Joshua Kerry · ◈police

lens: Evidence-weighted Structural

The split — every branch

1 of the 3 ranked narratives decline to answer this Question at all — the residual is winning it. Shares under Evidence-weighted. Belief may rank these branches; it may never hide one — and the last bar, unknown, is a branch too.

Police raided Joshua Kerry's house and discovered Russian and communist material is currently leading — not established. The unknown residual stands at 62%.

The branches, one by one

What would change this

The evidence that would move this Question — read straight off the structure, not editorialised. These are the places where the model is explicitly waiting to be corrected.

• Was the source actually positioned to observe or receive this? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
• Is the account corroborated by an independent source or artifact? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
• Is the account a restatement of someone else’s, rather than first-hand? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
• Does the source have an interest in this conclusion? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
• Is the source genuinely in a position to know? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.
• Is the claim independently corroborated? — open critical question on Joshua Kerry opened the passenger side of a car.

Branches nothing has tested yet — evidence here would move the most:

• The CCTV footage shows Joshua Kerry opening the passenger side door of a red car

Where this leads — the ranked narratives

• #1 — walk this version of events

  • How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator?: (agnostic — left open) (62%)

• #2 — walk this version of events

  • How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator?: Police raided Joshua Kerry's house and discovered Russian and communist material (38%)

• #3 — walk this version of events

  • How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator?: The Sun obtained CCTV showing Joshua Kerry opening the passenger side of a car (0.3%)

Recent developments

• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The prosecution unsuccessfully attempted to introduce a terrorism connection in… 7d ago
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• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Court filings indicate the Crown Prosecution Service applied to add a terrorism connected… 7d ago
  see the page as it stood then
• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The suspect was seen with a wooden bat sticking out of his cargo shorts 7d ago
  see the page as it stood then
• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry is the perpetrator of Anne Widdecombe's murder 7d ago
  see the page as it stood then
• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry drove approximately 540 miles in one trip without stopping for fuel or toilet 7d ago
  see the page as it stood then
• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Police claim Joshua Kerry is 28 years old and from Rotherham 7d ago
  see the page as it stood then
• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Police claim Joshua Kerry drove without glasses 7d ago
  see the page as it stood then
• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Joshua Kerry is being quizzed by the police 7d ago
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• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Police have released a picture of Joshua Kerry holding a jar of Easter eggs for a charity… 7d ago
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• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The family believes that the death of Joshua Kerry's father may have caused him to spiral… 7d ago
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• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: The suspect's car is a Vauxhall Corser with a 45 L fuel tank 7d ago
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• → How did police identify Joshua Kerry as the perpetrator? — answer on the table: Police claim Joshua Kerry drove a 600-mile round trip in rush hour traffic in 4 hours 7d ago
  see the page as it stood then

Sources bearing on this Question

• Ann Widdecombe Case Just Got More MYSTERIOUS

Numbers on this page are computed under Evidence-weighted (log-odds@1) — how belief is computed. Related views: the whole story · timeline · explore the narratives. Machine-readable twins: Markdown · JSON · Atom.