Thomas Crooks — What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings?
1 open question the model has to answer together — because a choice in one of them constrains the others. Nothing here is inside this story; a story is a path through the graph, not a folder.
fog: 7 of 7 claims rest on one source or none 4 ranked possible worlds ◷ timeline walk a possible world
The open questions
What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings?
3 branches · 1 source
67% unknown — none of the above
1 source · 0 evidentiary legs · the whole split
The cast
- Thomas Crooks person 5 appearances
- Secret Service org 3 appearances
- Helen Comperatore person 2 appearances
- Donald Trump person 1 appearance
On the clock
- no recorded time 2024 Butler assassination attempt
Ranked possible worlds
-
#1 — walk this version of events
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive…: (agnostic — left open) (67%)
-
#2 — walk this version of events
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive…: The Secret Service got everything wrong leading up to the shooting. (16%)
-
#3 — walk this version of events
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive…: The Secret Service did not receive 102 local radio transmissions about Thomas Crooks. (11%)
-
#4 — walk this version of events
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive…: The shooting was an inside job within the government. (6.7%)
Recent developments
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings? — belief recomputed; unknown 67%
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings? — belief recomputed; unknown 67%
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings? — belief recomputed; unknown 67%
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings? — belief recomputed; unknown 67%
- What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings? — belief recomputed; unknown 67%