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answers: What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings?

The Secret Service got everything wrong leading up to the shooting.

hedged in the source

No event time was recorded for this claim — the text gave nothing to anchor it to, and a guessed date would be worse than none.

Standing

lens: Evidence-weighted Structural

18% belief under Evidence-weighted · -1.50 log-odds · derived, never stored

Every contribution to this claim's belief under Evidence-weighted. Starting point: the floor (-3 log-odds — an unsupported claim starts near zero, not at "maybe"). Contributions sum to +1.50; the result is -1.50 log-odds = 18%.
Direction What it rests on Base Leg CQ factor Contribution
support Shooter Thomas Crooks had little online activity, making it increasingly difficult to build a profile.
evidential, independent leg #1 ⇒ ÷1		 1 #1 ×1 +1.00
support The Secret Service only got five calls and three texts about the would-be assassin.
evidential, independent leg #2 ⇒ ÷2		 1 #2 ×1 +0.50

0 evidentiary legs 1 source 0 challenges supported

Questions this bears on

Offered as an answer to:

What caused the Secret Service to fail to receive warnings?

3 branches · 1 source

16% The Secret Service got everything wrong leading up to the shooting.
11% The Secret Service did not receive 102 local radio transmissions about…
6.7% The shooting was an inside job within the government.
67% unknown — none of the above

What bears on it

Shown to three levels; follow any claim to see its own structure.

Voices

Voices are counted, never weighed. How many people say a thing is structure worth seeing; it is not, by itself, a reason to believe it.

What the documents actually said

The verbatim text each extraction read before resolving it into this canonical claim. Quoted, never republished.

Sources

Who and what it involves

Origin: extracted from Widow of man killed in Butler Trump assassination attempt claims it was an 'inside job' · 2026-07-18 09:58