answers: Who was responsible for the Nord Stream sabotage?

Hersh alleged that U.S. Navy divers, operating under the cover of a NATO exercise (BALTOPS 22) in June 2022, planted explosives on the pipelines, ordered by President Joe Biden.

hedged in the source 2022-06-01 → 2022-07-01

Standing

lens: Evidence-weighted Structural

0.9% belief under Evidence-weighted · -4.67 log-odds · derived, never stored

Every contribution to this claim's belief under Evidence-weighted. Starting point: the floor (-3 log-odds — an unsupported claim starts near zero, not at "maybe"). Contributions sum to -1.67; the result is -4.67 log-odds = 0.9%.
Direction What it rests on Base Leg CQ factor Contribution
challenge Mainstream analysts noted Hersh relied on a single, anonymous source.
evidential, independent leg #1 ⇒ ÷1
1 #1 ×1 -1.00
challenge The White House categorically denied Hersh’s claims, calling them "complete fiction".
evidential, independent leg #2 ⇒ ÷2
1 #2 ×1 -0.50
challenge A commando unit of Ukrainians and/or Russian dissidents rented a small yacht named Andromeda from a Polish company, sailed to the blast site, and planted explosives.
evidential, independent leg #3 ⇒ ÷3
0.5 #3 ×1 -0.17

0 evidentiary legs 1 source 3 challenges challenged

Questions this bears on

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Voices

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What the documents actually said

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Sources

Contradicted by

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Who and what it involves

Origin: extracted from Nordstream Pipeline Sabotage Timeline · 2026-07-18 09:56